Context: on Saturday, October 24, 2026 the Ministry reported 410,000 protesters nationwide against the cost of living. Resolves YES if the Ministry of the Interior (or, if it publishes no national figure, police figures reported by AFP) reports MORE than 300,000 protesters nationwide on Saturday, October 31, 2026, in protests against the cost of living or the related social movement. Organizers' or unions' figures do not count. Resolves NO otherwise, including if no protest takes place. Trading closes October 31, 2026 at 08:00 Paris time, before the protests. The creator will not bet on this market.
1,000Market was 56% when I bet; I've got it near 20%. Oct 24 hit 410k with the unions out. Today is mostly a Yellow Vests evening pot-banging call on Halloween, start of the long weekend, and the unions are saving it for the Nov 5 strike. https://www.sudradio.fr/sud-radio/halloween-social-greve-du-5-novembre-blocages-quels-sont-les-prochains-actes-a-venir