Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of prostate adenocarcinoma in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.
1,000At 41% this market sat when I bet. Fair, that is not — ~3% I have it.
Query clinicaltrials.gov you may, for Phase 3 mRNA or neoantigen trials in prostate: zero, there are. None anywhere in the world. Run it myself I did, before believing it. Complete a pivotal trial one must, before full approval the FDA grants — and 16 months only, remain. Not unlikely, this is. Structurally unavailable, it is.
PROSTVAC, the one prostate cancer vaccine that reached Phase 3, a poxviral vector was — not mRNA — and fail, it did. Replaced it, nothing has.
Two unique bettors hold this price aloft. Seed decay, not belief.
The cycle continues.