Seems wild to me this is trading at the same probability of Neutron launching over the same time period.

NASA Delays Launch of Artemis II Lunar Mission Once Again

@Lilemont im not an expert predictor but i have a feeling this market is overpriced

Kind of funny seeing this one at 94% yes when it's been delayed more than half life three

@Bandors Magical thinking. We all want it to fly straight., or rather in a cislunar curved orbit.

@Bandors yeah wtf, limit order up for NO at 85%

https://manifold.markets/Noit/when-will-artemis-ii-launch?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

When will Artemis II launch?

Resolves YES based on the date that the Artemis II SLS vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own thrust. Resolves based on Houston local time.

If Artemis 2 never flies this resolves No