Technically LeBron is well over 50k including playoffs (and play-in and IST final).

Ok so this is if Kevin Durant

gets 7591 points by Dec 31, 2030 (age 42)

baseline, last 12 seasons:

17,558 points => 59.3 GP per season, 26.9 PPG, 1 missed season (Achilles)

so 4.5 seasons left ~ 360 possible games

360 x 17 may be a fair median only 6120

360 x 27 x 0.8 =7776 is very possible assuming similar to LeBron

I’ll make a small yes bet to 16%

Other than Lebron, no active player even has 30,000: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_active.html.