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MANIFOLD
Who will win the Kansas senate seat?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ180
Jan 1
47%
Roger Marshall (r) incumbent
50%
Adam Hamilton (d)
3%
David Graham (I)

Polls indicate a possible upset, but if we’ve learned anything in the last two elections… polls are often wrong. Kansas hadn’t elected a Democrat senator since 1932.

If the election is clearly called by at least 2 major news organizations the question will settle. If the result is in doubt it will resolve by the end of the year when it does get called or, if needed with a best estimate based on Kalshi odds

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