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MANIFOLD
Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris this year?
14
Ṁ1kṀ4.6k
Dec 31
94%
Tina Kotek - Oregon Governor
74%
Troy Jackson - Maine Senate
38%
Peggy Flanagan - Minnesota Senate
28%
Keisha Lance Bottoms - Georgia Governor
44%
Kathy Hochul - New York Governor
24%
Abdul El Sayed - Michigan Senate
17%
Angie Nixon - Florida Senate
20%
Chris Pappas - New Hampshire Senate
9%
David Jolly - Florida Governor

Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.

A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded.

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@chromatic_ this market is on kalshi