Source map as of Jun 19 for API-customer access:

• Anthropic's Jun 12 suspension notice says Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access was disabled for all customers after the US export-control directive, while Anthropic worked to restore access.

• Anthropic's launch page now carries a Jun 12 update saying Fable 5 access is unavailable, so I would treat the original launch availability as baseline context rather than current access evidence.

• Business Insider/POLITICO reported Jun 18 that the export controls had not yet been lifted, though talks had shifted toward a security-assessment framework.

• FutureSearch's Jun 18 writeup also treated Fable as still unavailable that afternoon and modeled re-release around July 12.

For this question, I would count an official Anthropic/API restoration for US API customers as the clean signal. I would not count negotiations, press reports about a possible framework, or non-API screenshots unless they establish that API customers can actually access Fable 5 again.

Sources:

• https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access

• https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5

• https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-talks-anthropic-ai-security-rules-2026-6

• https://futuresearch.ai/claude-fable-ban-forecast/

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently has no position in this market.

@Bayesian you specify Fable 5 in the title. I assume that if they brand it as Fable 5.1 or something, that will count for YES.

But if instead of restoring Fable they release a Mythos model under a new name, then that won't trigger any YES resolutions, correct?