Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, upon its return to public availability, access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 model (or its direct successor/replacement branded as Fable) is officially restored for both US-based users and international/non-US users (foreign nationals) at the same time.
For the purposes of this market:
"At the same time" is defined as within the same 24-hour window, or as part of the same public rollout/announcement.
"Restored access" means the model is made officially available for general use through at least one official channel (e.g., Claude Web/App, Anthropic API, Claude Code) to paying customers or subscription tiers in the respective regions. Unofficial workarounds (e.g., VPNs, leaks, third-party proxies) do not count.
This market will resolve to NO if:
Access is reenabled for one group (e.g., US-based users) but remains restricted or blocked for another group (e.g., non-US users/foreign nationals) at the initial return, establishing a staggered rollout or a permanent geoblock/nationality gate.
Anthropic requires nationality verification (such as passport checks or KYC) that restricts access to US persons only while foreign nationals remain blocked.
Fable 5 (or a direct successor) is not officially reenabled for either group by December 31, 2026.
Source of Truth: Resolves based on official announcements from Anthropic's news site (https://www.anthropic.com/news), their status page, or verified reporting by reputable technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, TechCrunch, Axios).
Background
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5, its first public "Mythos-class" model, featuring advanced reasoning capabilities alongside strict internal safeguards. Three days later, on June 12, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an export control directive ordering the suspension of all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, citing national security concerns over potential guardrail bypasses.
Because Anthropic did not possess a nationality verification system, the company complied by disabling the models globally for all customers, including those within the United States. This market tracks whether the model's eventual return will be a unified global release or a staggered, regionally-gated rollout designed to satisfy U.S. export controls.
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1,000