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MANIFOLD
🐣What will happen in April 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
71
Ṁ950Ṁ6.8k
May 2
99%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
99%
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
99%
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
99%
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
98.1%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
97%
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
94%
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
86%
noam chomsky alive until end of month
69%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
63%
A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater
50%
Accidentally Clicked this
49%
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
45%
Tottenham Hotspur dont win a game of football
37%
Cambridge South (UK) railway station finishes construction and open to the public.
33%
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
32%
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
28%
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
24%
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
21%
trump leaves usa at least once
19%
usa bombs or missle strikes syria

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Events must occur in April 2026 (not merely by April 2026).

Market context
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bought Ṁ15 YES

Does the ukraine-russia ceasefire have to be lasting? Who has to declare it, one or both sides?

What if its declared, and then violated ten minutes after?

ajay is N/A, please

bought Ṁ10 YES

OBVVV AJAY IS COLD HES CAMPING FUH NAH BOT

7.4 Earthquake on 1st April

Meme gif. A crying face of Michael Jordan is edited on top of a young man who is sitting and wears a hoodie. He stands up, throws his hood on, and walks away.

opened a Ṁ29 NO at 99.0% order

In April 2026 or by April 2026?

@strutheo

the title says "in"

@strutheo will the closing date be extended?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@strutheo atlassian

I assume there's a specific volcano being implied here :)