US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2027?

Question

(x, y] here means x < tariff percentage <= y. (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interval_(mathematics))
10.1 would resolve (10, 25] %
Exactly 10% would resolve [0, 10]

Please let me know if you have any confusions/notice edge cases in this operationalization.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, <= 10%, followed by (10, 25] % and (25, 50] % are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Feb 21, 2026).

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