State of the Union Address (SOTU)
Address to a Joint Session of Congress
Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the address, official and unofficial transcripts, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.
This is meant to be a fun market. If you have any question about the interpretation of an item ask before participating in it, no exceptions. Participate at your own risk.
If the Address does not happen, all pertinent items resolve NO.
All added options, if not easily resolved default to the owner, if unresponsive, will N/A.
I will try to resolve props as quickly as possible, however, this may not always be the case. If something does or does not happen and the question is not resolved in a timely manner, do not interpret it as a ruling one way or another and have it influence your decisions. I've either missed it or need to do further research after the SOTU to confirm. I will attempt to have everything resolved on the night of the event, but give me a few days to take care of anything I may have missed. Thank you!
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may not be able to provide live resolutions during the SOTU address due to travel. Resolutions should be completed within a few days after the event. Moderators may assist with resolutions if necessary.
1,000People are also trading
@Jack1 why?
Context for everyone else, Jack requesting n/a is right after the following series of comments:
https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/state-of-the-union-address-2026#xjcfrok0nz
If I say "He mentioned the mayor of NYC," and you reply, "Oh, Mamdani?," & I say "No," I'd sound insane. That's how this market has been resolved.
If what you mean is, "says the exact words _______," then "mentions" is the wrong word to use. What you mean is, "says ______," or "mentions ______ explicitly by name only."
Trump’s State of the Union Speech: Full Transcript - The New York Times
@MT_Hammer Trump said "beautiful" 8-9 times, depending on whether you count "beautifully," but regardless, market should resolve to YES
@RebeccaLively Trump said "Tonight I’m demanding the full and immediate restoration of all funding for the border security, homeland security of the United States and also for helping people clean up their snow." I certaintly think this should resolve "Trump demands funding for DHS" to YES
@Bandors The transcript has "great" 41 times, a lot more than 10, so should resolve to YES
@shankypanky I'm pretty sure Trump does not mention a governor or mayor by name anywhere in the Transcript
@Jack1 Neither "hoax" nor "woke" are in the transcript, but Trump does say "Obamacare." It's a bit ambiguous whether this counts as mentioning Obama, but I think it should count - I mean Trump literally said "Obama" and I think obamacare is a large part of Obama's legacy either way, so saying Obamacare is directly referring to and mentioning Obama.
@Dssc I disagree that "Obama mentioned" is the same as "Obamacare mentioned". That's really off. The person is not equivalent to the legislative act.
@Hakari Sure, but:
It has "obama" directly in it, and he said the name
I think maybe the better argument for YES is that, while it is true that the person is not the same as the legislative act, "Obamacare" is in direct reference to Obama, and therefore should count as a mention IMO. It's not like Obamacare is the actual name of the act; The actual name is the "Affordable Care Act," and "Obamacare" is an informal name that explicitly ties Obama into the speech. He already called it the "Unaffordable Care Act," which was purely mentioning the act itself, but then he also called it "Obamacare," specifically trying to attack Obama by connecting the ACA to Obama.
@Dssc dude you're reaching heavily.
"Trump Tower mentioned" is not the same as "Trump mentioned" for example.
@Jack1 I believe in this situation it's decided by the quotes
"Obama" mentioned = Ctrl+F any mention of the word "Obama" in the transcript
Obama mentioned = actual person
there are such options here with the search keyword within "quotes" where we're just supposed to find the word. But Obama mentioned is not one of them.
Beyond that I'll let whoever resolves it decide.
I need your resolution for my own, just woke up.
@JoeandSeth Was right! They were clapping in responce to the hockey team - AP's angle got it super clear you can see all 4 of their hands.
@Dssc wow sharp eye - I just went back to the AP video and caught a quick moment of her clapping after the hockey team came in. I'll resolve that one yes.
