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MANIFOLD
In which election cycle will Democrats next win control of the Senate?
30
Ṁ320Ṁ7.5k
2030
0.2%
2024
50%
2026
32%
2028
18%
Other

Close date to be extended and new options to be added until this happens or until the Democratic party/US Senate ceases to exist.

Market context
2026 US Congressional Elections
US Senate
2024 US Election
US Congressional Elections 2024
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opened a Ṁ1,500 NO at 20% order

imo the most within-the-realm-of-possibility scenario is that 2026 they keep what they have and flip Maine and NC, then 2028 they keep what they have and flip WI and the other NC - and that's assuming they don't lose Georgia in 2026 or PA in 2028

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