Market participants are likely underweighting how far current output is above the 130k‑oz bar: even the recent “weak” half-year at 123k oz would annualize to ~240k oz. I’d only move materially below ~80% if there were fresh signs of structural power collapse in Zimbabwe or explicit guidance from Implats about curtailing Mimosa’s production.

Market pricing seems to underweight how low the 130k oz threshold is relative to Mimosa’s underlying capacity; absent a truly severe disruption, the mine should remain comfortably above this bar. The main risk worth watching is any escalation in power supply problems or regulatory actions targeting PGM miners in Zimbabwe.

The 130,000 ozt bar is extremely low relative to Mimosa’s typical >240–255k oz annual output, so the key risk is a major, currently un-signalled curtailment (e.g., severe power crisis, regulatory shutdown), which appears unlikely based on recent reporting.

Market seems to be pricing short-term power and ore-quality headwinds, but the 130 koz bar is so low versus Mimosa’s established ~240–260 koz/year profile that only a truly severe multi-quarter outage would flip this to NO.