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MANIFOLD
How many civilians will federal LEO or military shoot with lethal munitions in California in the next 12 months
6
Ṁ1kṀ779
Aug 1
27%
0
39%
1-10
13%
11-50
9%
51-100
7%
101-250
5%
Over 250

The situation in California is escalating. Place your bets on how far it will go.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they do not have a specific data source for resolution.

They will resolve the market based on a consensus from the community.

  • Update 2026-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve using federal law enforcement data and news articles from papers of record, though paywalls may limit this approach.

  • Update 2026-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has identified a specific data source for resolution: the FBI Crime Data Explorer Use of Force database (https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/le/uof), which covers approximately 70% of all agencies. The creator notes it may be possible to manually filter for federal agencies (FBI, ICE, etc.).

Market context
California
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This is the best source I have yet found. It says it is representative of a little over 70% of all agencies, and presumably one can manually filter for the FBI, ICE, and other federal agencies (I only have access to my phone presently so it will have to wait, but putting this up here to get eyes on it if anyone has objections or alternatives they want to forward)

@JessicaEvans https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/le/uof

This is nearing close. I will start looking for available federal law enforcement data and news articles in papers of record. Because of pay walls this approach may be more limited than ideal, but suggestions are welcome.

bought Ṁ100 YES

In an average year, federal law enforcement officers shoot 50-60 people. In California, that means you would expect 5-6 fatalities in an average year.
How are you planning to collect the data to resolve this? It will not necessarily be easy to determine the answer.

@LarsOsborne In good faith I have to admit that I have no idea. Open to following any consensus.

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