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MANIFOLD
FIDE Candidates 2026 [PROP BETS]
26
Ṁ350Ṁ3.7k
Dec 31
80%
Will Kris Littlejohn be present as a second in Cyprus?
1%
Will Matthias Bluebaum finish in the top half?
0.8%
Will an American win?
1%
Will Anish Giri have the most draws (or tie for the most draws) in the field?
0.9%
Will either the Rossolimo or Alapin Sicilian be played?
1%
Will there be a tiebreak to determine the winner?
90%
Will a player not be able to convert a +5 winning position as determined by Stockfish 17 NNUE?

  • Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Stockfish 17 NNUE analysis will use a standard depth of 21.

  • Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Will an Asian win?' prop bet, Asian is defined as: Wei Yi, Pragg (Praggnanandhaa), and Sindarov only.

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@_M_ In addition to the game Q mentioned, make sure to check Wei-Giri before resolving No

bought Ṁ50 YES

@_M_ not sure exactly how you want to evaluate, but I would check Bluebaum-Sindarov before black’s 24th move

is this correct? Which ggame had 120+?
(Resolved YES Will any game finish under 20 moves or go over 120 moves?)

3-fold SIndarov-Blübaum after 18 my mistake

bought Ṁ10 NO

@_M_ Sindarov has won 3 straight

@_M_ How much depth?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Wintersfan standard depth of 21

bought Ṁ10 NO

@_M_ Which candidates are considered Asian for this question? My interpretation would be Wei Yi, Pragg, and Sindarov only

@SentientTree yes

candidates that are representing asian countries

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