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MANIFOLD
“Every Bay Area House Party” house party in London 2 Prop Bets (add answers!)
18
Ṁ750Ṁ982
Dec 31
88%
There's insider trading
87%
At least 10 people hug the Eliezer Yudkowsky body pillow
82%
Someone who doesn’t know who Aella is attends
73%
Someone is not aware of the first rule
67%
Someone travels over 100 miles to attend
61%
Someone who learned about the party from Manifold attends
Resolved
YES
Over 40 people attend
Resolved
YES
An AI Box experiment is held
Resolved
YES
Someone wears cat ears
Resolved
YES
Over 50 people attend
Resolved
YES
Conditional on AI box experiment being held, AI wins at least once (no insider-trading)

If you're reading this, you're invited btw

https://partiful.com/events/gIBlepTMYp8J7nGqapRV

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There are no valid benchmarks on manifold markets. I did a penetration test and in less than 14 hours it broke down and by hour 22 of testing it can completely failed as having reliable benchmarks.

If you can share data that would allow me to resolve the markets please share it

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