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MANIFOLD
Chess Prop Bets: 2026 World Chess Championships
14
Ṁ1.8kṀ1.3k
Dec 30
78%
Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?
71%
Will White win more games than Black?
66%
Will there be a streak of 4 or more consecutive draws?
59%
Will the match be tied (e.g., 1–1 or 2–2) after the first four games?
57%
Will a player who loses a game eventually win the match?
57%
Will any game exceed 100 moves?
48%
Will there be 4 or more decisive (non-draw) games in the classical portion?
45%
Will the match be decided before Game 14?
43%
There will be more decisive games than the previous Championship (5)
41%
Will the match be decided by a margin of 2 or more points in the classical portion?
39%
Will the venue be in Europe?
37%
Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game? (Stays on any stream for >= 45 minutes)
35%
Will the match begin before November 1, 2026?
35%
Will Gukesh win a game immediately following a loss?
35%
Gukesh retains his WC title
34%
Will it be decided by tiebreaks?
33%
Will Game 1 or Game 2 be a decisive result (not a draw)?
28%
The "Home Field" Factor: Will the venue be in either India or Uzbekistan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026

The questions are about the upcoming World Chess Championship between Gukesh D (IND) and the winner of the Candidates tournament.

Resolution criteria

Each independent option will resolve to "Yes" if the specific event described occurs during the 2026 World Chess Championship match, and "No" otherwise.


Official results and game statistics will be verified via the official FIDE website (fide.com) or the official tournament broadcast platform. In the event of a dispute or ambiguity, the official FIDE match report will be the final authority.

Background

The 2026 World Chess Championship will feature Gukesh D, who qualified by winning the 2024 Candidates Tournament. He will face the winner of the 2026 Candidates Tournament. This match serves as the ultimate test in classical chess, usually consisting of a multi-game series where players alternate colors. Historically, the venue and exact dates are determined by FIDE following a bidding process. Traders should monitor official FIDE announcements regarding the host country and schedule, as these details are subject to change until finalized.

  • Update 2026-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Any game" refers only to Classical games, not tiebreaks, unless tiebreaks are explicitly specified in the option.

  • Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option 'Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game?', Carlsen must stay on any stream for at least 45 minutes to count as commentary (a brief cameo is not sufficient).

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bought Ṁ100 YES

@Ram_N Full game or can he commentate only like hour for example?

@Weezing Thank you. Just added a clarification saying >= 45 minutes on any stream. That seemed reasonable, instead of just a cameo for a few minutes, which he more likely might

bought Ṁ10 YES

Just to clarify, "any game" here refers to only to the Classical games, not tie-breaks, unless tiebreaks are explicitly specified

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