Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
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200Ṁ6112029
72%
Grüne
71%
AfD
66%
CDU
49%
SPD
40%
FDP
39%
CSU
32%
Die Linke
23%
BSW
This market resolves based on the results of the next German federal election.
For each party listed:
Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Bundestag compared to the number of seats it won in the 2025 federal election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.
If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@evan Just to confirm: If a party changes its name, but clearly is the direct successor, the option will just resolve to the comparision between the old and the new party? (BSW might be considering a name change)
Edited politically incorrect typo "jew party" -> "new party" 😜