In which season will I finish below first place for the first time?
In which season will I finish below first place for the first time?
7
100Ṁ258Jul 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
8%
Season 24 (April): Platinum
40%
Season 25 (May): Diamond
51%
Season 26 (June): Masters
2%
Season 27+ (July or later): Masters, again
Resolves to the first season that @evan does not finish in first place in his Manifold league cohort.
Some background: I joined Manifold for the first time in Season 9, and finished in first place in my Bronze, Gold, and Platinum leagues before deleting my account in Diamond league in protest of the pivot. Now I'm back, and I've won my Bronze League cohort in Season 22 and all of Gold League in Season 23. Thought it would be cool to bring this back. Credit goes to @mattyb for the original idea.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.