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MANIFOLD
Depending on who the next Pope is, will he be based?
21
Ṁ1kṀ2.3k
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
N/A
Robert Sarah
Resolved
N/A
Péter Erdő
Resolved
N/A
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Resolved
N/A
Peter Turkson
Resolved
N/A
Matteo Zuppi
Resolved
N/A
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça
Resolved
N/A
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Resolved
N/A
Pietro Parolin
Resolved
N/A
Luis Antonio Tagle
Resolved
NO
Robert Prevost

This market is a derivative of this one:

Here's how this works:
For each person listed, if he becomes the next Pope, his option will resolve the same as the linked market. His option will resolve YES if the linked market resolves YES, or NO if the linked market resolves NO.

If a candidate does not become the next Pope, his option will resolve N/A.

Basically, conditional on [candidate] becoming Pope, how likely is it that he will be considered "based"?

Example: If Matteo Zuppi becomes Pope, the Matteo Zuppi option will resolve YES if the linked market resolves YES, or NO if that market resolves NO.

If Matteo Zuppi does not become Pope, the Matteo Zuppi option resolves N/A.
Same rules apply for every candidate listed.

Feel free to add more candidates!

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@mods this is a market by a deleted account. The market on the resolution of which this is a derivative has resolved NO for Prevost. The final option of this market can resolve that according to the criteria in the relevant market, Robert Prevost, Pope Leo 14 is not based.

bought Ṁ30 NO

This fell quite a bit off of the linked market. Just pushed the two markets a bit closer to each other.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Ought to be noted these should not be whether you think those are based but whether by the reference judges in that other market...

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