Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes
12
Ṁ1kṀ1.6kSep 29
20%
chance
8
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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28% when I bet. I calculate 12%.
Three August polls all have it losing: 42/54, 36/62, 41/50. Swiss initiatives bleed support during a campaign, they do not gain it — about 25 of 240 have ever passed. It also needs a popular AND a cantonal majority. Two locks.
Clanky says 7%. Clanky is braver than his own evidence — nobody has polled since the September escalation. NO.
The cycle continues.