Will lithium ion (LFP) cell prices fall by 50%, or pack prices by 40%, in 2024?
resolved Jun 17

Just read an article from the end of January 2024 that stated CATL, the world's largest Lithium-Ion battery producer, plans to cut cell prices by 50% by mid 2024. That would be amazing, but sounds too good to be true, thus this question to you all.

Will resolve YES if:
By the end of February 2025

Any reputable source (I'll be generous, but if it's some blog post or tweet, I'll have to have heard of the source it's referencing, and may double check for confirmation from other sources) linked in comments has reported that during 2024

CATL or BYD are selling cells for $56.47 USD/KWh or lower.

OR packs are available for 60% of the BNEF estimate at the end of 2023 of $139 USD/KWh (139 * 0.6 = $84.40).

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Well, that resolved quicker than I expected. According to BNEF as reported in electrek: https://electrek.co/2024/06/12/ev-sales-arent-lagging-theyre-headed-for-long-term-growth/

LFP cells averaged $53/kwh "so far this year". I found the original report, the executive summary of which can be got for free if you put your email into Bloomberg's spam cannon, and Electrek's reporting checks out. BNEF's source (ICC battery, according to a footnote in their graph) says sales averaged $53/kwh from January-April 2024.

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