Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the CFTC? (Ṁ2000 subsidy)
32
2.2kṀ57k
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
YES

For now, I'll define "win" as a judge ruling in favor of Kalshi and allowing election markets and/or CFTC settling and allowing election markets.

I'm making this market quickly without giving much thought to the rules, but I'm open to rule refinements and in general subscribe to the "spirit of the market" vibe. Essentially this will resolve as YES if Kalshi achieves its objectives.

US Politics
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@mods

bought Ṁ1,760 YES

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-ruling-letting-kalshiex-list-election-betting-contracts-2024-10-02/

sold Ṁ469 NO

Resolves Yes

Wow
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/06/kalshi-cleared-to-offer-congressional-prediction-markets-in-victory-against-cftc/?utm_term=organic&utm_campaign=coindesk_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=editorial

@eightyhi Maybe add this question to the "Kalshi" group: https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=kalshi&t=

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predictedYES

@MickBransfield how do i do that?

predictedNO

@eightyhi I see you're in the Kalshi group now. Apologies if I missed it before.

I think if the case they're making was winnable, someone would have won it by now. This is mostly for PR, IMO.

@Joshua cool

@Joshua Welp

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Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Maryland?
70% chance
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?
76% chance
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?
81% chance
Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?
53% chance
Will the Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
72% chance
Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?
14% chance
Will the court order Kalshi to stop offering events contracts for sport in Massachusetts during it's court case?
43% chance
Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?
66% chance
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
61% chance
When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?
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