Data is now available up to February 1st. Lowest point for January was 2 on the 31st.

CDC is now updating cases every two weeks, so you will have to wait a little bit for resolution. But I'm almost sure it will resolve NO, so I already created the same market for February:

hmm the data says 0 at the moment but I think it's gonna be like december 31st first they put 0 and later on they will update the data with the actual numbers

@Simon1551 it has to get to 0 for the moving average, not the cases in one day. I don't think it will be a problem for this market as cases will update within a week if there are issues. In any case, I will resolve as soon as there is a day with a report of 0 for the 7-day moving average, independently of the data then changing. I'll update the description to make sure that everyone is aware of that.

@egroj they now only update once a week on Wednesdays, that's why there's been nothing since Jan 4.

@NicoDelon Oh thats golden info

@NicoDelon Did they specify it somewhere?

@Simon1551 https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

@NicoDelon Sorry, wrong link. Here https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html

@NicoDelon

Probability is quite high, so I made another one for it ending mid January:

@egroj https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-in-f1028b4a4a56

I mean is it ever going to end?

@Simon1551 looks like it is about to end:

@egroj Well that's good