🏅 Top traders

BTW 3% interest rate here until the end of the year, I'm kind of short cash right now or I would get it below 1%:

This might not make most people that bid happy, but the report for Feb 26 shows 0 for 7-day average, there were more cases after and including that day, but by the market description I'm going to resolve YES

@egroj didn't see that coming

@egroj wow. What with this and the OWID dashboard not updating in time, I lost a lot of mana today.

@AllanLacy I also didn't thought it likely, but I thought it was around 30% chance. I had sold before but didn't bid again because I was too short on cash due to donations 😂

I'm noticing this market now due to: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-there-be-a-ae482ad6dfdf

I understand that this resolved according to the precise criteria in the description, but that just means that the resolution criteria were poorly chosen. Designing a question that must resolve contrary to reality because of obvious data reporting issues seems bad. (I had no stake in this market obviously, just throwing opinions around.)

By the end of 2023, will there be a serious market that had a >=99% swing in under 5 minutes?

98.2% chance. Includes resolutions even if no one corrected the market beforehand. (As long as the resolution was accurate.) For example: A market that was at <=1% and then resolved YES. A market that was at >=99.5% and then was suddenly bet down to <=0.5%, and remains at <=0.5% for several days,…

@jcb There are definitely questions where people get screwed by a technicality, but I don't think this is one. Looking at the bigger picture question, it seems quite reasonable to say that the mpox outbreak did in fact (approximately) end around Feb. WHO declared it ended in May https://www.paho.org/en/news/11-5-2023-who-declares-end-mpox-emergency-calls-sustained-efforts-long-term-management-disease but the decline could already be seen before that. I think this question operationalized it in a reasonable way.

WHO declares end of mpox emergency, calls for sustained efforts for long-term management of the disease

May 11, 2023- The Emergency Committee on monkeypox (mpox) met yesterday and advised that the multi-country outbreak is no longer a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), given the sustained decline in cases. The WHO Director-General accepted the Committee’s advice.

@jack maybe I wasn't clear enough about my complaint -- the CDC counts were adjusted later and ultimately the 7-day average never went to 0 in February: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

Or do you mean that "there few enough deaths that the initially reported numbers are 0" is an OK way to operationalize the end of the outbreak?

Mopox in the U.S.

Learn more about mpox in the United States.

I don't agree that the criteria were poorly chosen. There are tradeoffs between using the preliminary data vs using the final data, both are valid choices - as long as we believe that the preliminary data are "close enough" (which I think is true) and as long as the market is clear about it (which this market was). My point is that either way it's a reasonable operationalization of the headline question.

@jcb back then there was a lot of interest in betting on mpox numbers, and this type of markets attracted bidders that wanted (or at least I thought they did) fast resolution whenever the first data was available. It was impossible to know if or when they were going to adjust data, and even today is difficult to know what data can be considered as "final". This was far from the first market that had this resolution criteria and I believe all the bettors had previously participated in markets with similar criteria.

@egroj I lost a lot on this market but the criteria were always clear and the resolution totally fair.

All markets in this series:

@egroj I mean similar markets but for the world