Will the Mpox (monkeypox) outbreak in the US end in February 2023?
resolved Mar 2

Resolves YES if the 7-day moving average of Mpox cases reported by the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html) is 0 on any day before March 1, 2023.

The market closes on February 28, 2023, but data for the last days of the month will likely not be available until later, so I will resolve the market whenever data for February 28 is available. I will resolve with the first data available, be aware that CDC might adjust the count later (although this is less of a problem for a moving average).

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BTW 3% interest rate here until the end of the year, I'm kind of short cash right now or I would get it below 1%:

This might not make most people that bid happy, but the report for Feb 26 shows 0 for 7-day average, there were more cases after and including that day, but by the market description I'm going to resolve YES

predicted NO

@egroj didn't see that coming

predicted NO

@egroj wow. What with this and the OWID dashboard not updating in time, I lost a lot of mana today.

@AllanLacy I also didn't thought it likely, but I thought it was around 30% chance. I had sold before but didn't bid again because I was too short on cash due to donations 😂

I'm noticing this market now due to: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-there-be-a-ae482ad6dfdf

I understand that this resolved according to the precise criteria in the description, but that just means that the resolution criteria were poorly chosen. Designing a question that must resolve contrary to reality because of obvious data reporting issues seems bad. (I had no stake in this market obviously, just throwing opinions around.)

predicted NO

@jcb There are definitely questions where people get screwed by a technicality, but I don't think this is one. Looking at the bigger picture question, it seems quite reasonable to say that the mpox outbreak did in fact (approximately) end around Feb. WHO declared it ended in May https://www.paho.org/en/news/11-5-2023-who-declares-end-mpox-emergency-calls-sustained-efforts-long-term-management-disease but the decline could already be seen before that. I think this question operationalized it in a reasonable way.

@jack maybe I wasn't clear enough about my complaint -- the CDC counts were adjusted later and ultimately the 7-day average never went to 0 in February: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

Or do you mean that "there few enough deaths that the initially reported numbers are 0" is an OK way to operationalize the end of the outbreak?

predicted NO

I don't agree that the criteria were poorly chosen. There are tradeoffs between using the preliminary data vs using the final data, both are valid choices - as long as we believe that the preliminary data are "close enough" (which I think is true) and as long as the market is clear about it (which this market was). My point is that either way it's a reasonable operationalization of the headline question.

@jcb back then there was a lot of interest in betting on mpox numbers, and this type of markets attracted bidders that wanted (or at least I thought they did) fast resolution whenever the first data was available. It was impossible to know if or when they were going to adjust data, and even today is difficult to know what data can be considered as "final". This was far from the first market that had this resolution criteria and I believe all the bettors had previously participated in markets with similar criteria.

predicted NO

@egroj I lost a lot on this market but the criteria were always clear and the resolution totally fair.

predicted YES

All markets in this series:

predicted YES

@egroj I mean similar markets but for the world