Will the 2024 Tour de France have Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel?
Jun 30

Resolves YES if all of those riders start stage 1.

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sold Ṁ105 NO

Unrelated but will be at manifest both days this year! Is anyone else coming ?

bought Ṁ15 YES

@JCE You could organize a Critérium du Dauphiné watchparty 👀 , maybe there will be some more interest

bought Ṁ5 NO

At this point this is basically a will Jonas recover in time market (and maybe Remco too but he seems more likely). Updates from Spanish media are that he's still in hospital and needs to be transferred, but is unable to fly because of the lung puncture. There's 78 days until the TDF. I think it's likely to be a month before he can even begin exercising again. That's a huge hit to fitness, and assuming he can get back on the bike (big if) roughly 50 days in best possible scenario to get back into shape. But it could easily be no more than a month.

I do think we've seen that Jonas can race into shape during world tours and it's arguably the last week where he really shines, but this is far more of a deficit than Pojacar having to train on rollers.

All this to say longer we go without hearing anything the more this market should keep going down.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 41%

@JCE I guess the other question is whether VAL thinks 75% Jonas is better than a 100% Kuss or Jorgenson. Give Kuss Tour lead and then there's no drama and he rides for Jonas the Vuelta?

predicts NO

Copying here the comments that I made on the market for just Remco (https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-remco-evenepoel-start-the-2024


I'm updating to a little bit less given the route of the Giro looks good on paper for Remco, and the Tour ends July 21 less than a week before the ITT (July 27) at the Olympics. I think Remco might want to fight for the gold medal there, and the following weekend at the road race. So Giro + Olympics + Vuelta might make more sense for him next year. And it would make more sense for Quickstep to focus on Jakobsen and sprints for the Tour

bought Ṁ100 of YES

All four should be expected to start the TDF and have it as a primary season goal. If we do not count injury or doping cases, I would say at least 95%.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Eliza Don't destroy my dreams, Pogi should start Giro + Olympics+ Vuelta next year.

To be honest, I think there is a good chance, that one of the four is injured.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Lion I see that as the ideal schedule for Remco. I doubt Pogacar would like to miss the Tour

predicts NO

@egroj I'm pretty biased, because I'm not the biggest TdF fan to be honest.

In my opinion Pogi isn't as a good (consistent) GC rider as Vingegaard (right now) and there is no reason to try to win the TdF this year, when there is the strongest competition since years. From my view, Evenepoel, Vingegard and Roglic have already decided to go to the Tour.

There is the option Pogi will win the Giro and afterwards will win a few TdF stages before leaving the Tour, preparing for Olympics and Adam Yates could secure a podium spot in GC.

But after all Pogi, his team and sponsors are going to decide that this autumn or winter.

predicts YES

Welp, this is took a turn.

3 out of those 4 may be on the same team in the next year...

if SOQ and TJV actually merge, will they all stay? Will Roglic leave? Will Remco leave? Will both leave? And would they leave to the same team or different ones?

predicts NO

@Checktaschu And its sum holding steady at near 50% I'm not selling my No shares.

bought Ṁ10 of NO