Will the 2024 Tour de France have Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel?

Resolves YES if all of those riders start stage 1.

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egroj avatar
JAAMpredicts NO

Copying here the comments that I made on the market for just Remco (https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-remco-evenepoel-start-the-2024


I'm updating to a little bit less given the route of the Giro looks good on paper for Remco, and the Tour ends July 21 less than a week before the ITT (July 27) at the Olympics. I think Remco might want to fight for the gold medal there, and the following weekend at the road race. So Giro + Olympics + Vuelta might make more sense for him next year. And it would make more sense for Quickstep to focus on Jakobsen and sprints for the Tour

Eliza avatar
Elizabought Ṁ100 of YES

All four should be expected to start the TDF and have it as a primary season goal. If we do not count injury or doping cases, I would say at least 95%.

Lion avatar
Lionbought Ṁ20 of NO

@Eliza Don't destroy my dreams, Pogi should start Giro + Olympics+ Vuelta next year.

To be honest, I think there is a good chance, that one of the four is injured.

egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ50 of NO

@Lion I see that as the ideal schedule for Remco. I doubt Pogacar would like to miss the Tour

Lion avatar
Lionpredicts NO

@egroj I'm pretty biased, because I'm not the biggest TdF fan to be honest.

In my opinion Pogi isn't as a good (consistent) GC rider as Vingegaard (right now) and there is no reason to try to win the TdF this year, when there is the strongest competition since years. From my view, Evenepoel, Vingegard and Roglic have already decided to go to the Tour.

There is the option Pogi will win the Giro and afterwards will win a few TdF stages before leaving the Tour, preparing for Olympics and Adam Yates could secure a podium spot in GC.

But after all Pogi, his team and sponsors are going to decide that this autumn or winter.

Checktaschu avatar
Checkt aschupredicts YES

Welp, this is took a turn.

3 out of those 4 may be on the same team in the next year...

if SOQ and TJV actually merge, will they all stay? Will Roglic leave? Will Remco leave? Will both leave? And would they leave to the same team or different ones?

Eliza avatar
Elizapredicts NO

@Checktaschu And its sum holding steady at near 50% I'm not selling my No shares.

egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ10 of NO