Well, that was a roller coaster to get to this point, what surprises still await us over the next week? Are you as hyped for this occurrence as you were 10 months ago or is it a "Well, I wanted this to happen, but not like that" situation?

Roglic and Remco both made it through Dauphine on their bikes. They're probably both suffering minor injuries but nothing that would derail a TDF start. This should now come down to Jonas plus small chances of pre-race crash, illness, etc.

Both Remco and Roglic fell again today. Remco stayed a very long time on the floor but finished the (neutralized) stage.

@egroj I don't think it affects their odds of starting the TDF in this case but I think it's clear they both took some impact.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C6qlbLdsqLg/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

He’s back on his bike folks

Unrelated but will be at manifest both days this year! Is anyone else coming ?

@JCE You could organize a Critérium du Dauphiné watchparty 👀 , maybe there will be some more interest

At this point this is basically a will Jonas recover in time market (and maybe Remco too but he seems more likely). Updates from Spanish media are that he's still in hospital and needs to be transferred, but is unable to fly because of the lung puncture. There's 78 days until the TDF. I think it's likely to be a month before he can even begin exercising again. That's a huge hit to fitness, and assuming he can get back on the bike (big if) roughly 50 days in best possible scenario to get back into shape. But it could easily be no more than a month.

I do think we've seen that Jonas can race into shape during world tours and it's arguably the last week where he really shines, but this is far more of a deficit than Pojacar having to train on rollers.

All this to say longer we go without hearing anything the more this market should keep going down.

@JCE I guess the other question is whether VAL thinks 75% Jonas is better than a 100% Kuss or Jorgenson. Give Kuss Tour lead and then there's no drama and he rides for Jonas the Vuelta?

https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/uae-delivers-tour-de-france-dream-team-with-tadej-pogacar-yates-ayuso-almeida/

https://x.com/giroditalia/status/1736415967847067770?s=20

Copying here the comments that I made on the market for just Remco (https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-remco-evenepoel-start-the-2024

):

I'm updating to a little bit less given the route of the Giro looks good on paper for Remco, and the Tour ends July 21 less than a week before the ITT (July 27) at the Olympics. I think Remco might want to fight for the gold medal there, and the following weekend at the road race. So Giro + Olympics + Vuelta might make more sense for him next year. And it would make more sense for Quickstep to focus on Jakobsen and sprints for the Tour

Will Remco Evenepoel start the 2024 Tour de France?

68% chance.

All four should be expected to start the TDF and have it as a primary season goal. If we do not count injury or doping cases, I would say at least 95%.

@Eliza Don't destroy my dreams, Pogi should start Giro + Olympics+ Vuelta next year.

To be honest, I think there is a good chance, that one of the four is injured.

@Lion I see that as the ideal schedule for Remco. I doubt Pogacar would like to miss the Tour

@egroj I'm pretty biased, because I'm not the biggest TdF fan to be honest.

In my opinion Pogi isn't as a good (consistent) GC rider as Vingegaard (right now) and there is no reason to try to win the TdF this year, when there is the strongest competition since years. From my view, Evenepoel, Vingegard and Roglic have already decided to go to the Tour.

There is the option Pogi will win the Giro and afterwards will win a few TdF stages before leaving the Tour, preparing for Olympics and Adam Yates could secure a podium spot in GC.

But after all Pogi, his team and sponsors are going to decide that this autumn or winter.

Welp, this is took a turn.

3 out of those 4 may be on the same team in the next year...

if SOQ and TJV actually merge, will they all stay? Will Roglic leave? Will Remco leave? Will both leave? And would they leave to the same team or different ones?

@Checktaschu And its sum holding steady at near 50% I'm not selling my No shares.

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