Will a game from the quarter finals be decided via penalty shoot-out at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
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resolved Dec 9
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Resolves YES if one of the four games of the quarter-finals is tied and has to be resolved via penalty shoot-out
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@egroj the probability in this market should be 1 - (1-prob1)*(1-prob2)*(1-prob3)*(1-prob4) where probn is the probability of each of the markets above. I get 61% currently, so either this market is overestimated or one (or several) of the individual markets is underestimated
