Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if exactly two (2) knockout stage matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are decided by a penalty shootout. If any other number of matches (0, 1, 3, or more) are decided by a penalty shootout, this market will resolve to NO.

• Knockout Matches: This includes all single-elimination matches in the tournament (Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, Third-place play-off, and the Final). There are 32 knockout matches in total.

• Decided by Penalty Shootout: A match is counted if the score remains tied after both regular time and the 30-minute extra-time period, with the winner determined by a penalty shootout.

• Sources of Truth: Official tournament results published on the FIFA Official Website or verified via major sports outlets like ESPN and the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage Wikipedia page.

• Resolution Date: The market will resolve following the conclusion of the World Cup Final scheduled for July 19, 2026.

Background

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature an expanded 48-team format. This expansion introduces a new Round of 32, doubling the total number of single-elimination knockout matches from 16 to 32. With more elimination games, the statistical probability of penalty shootouts increases. For comparison, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar (under the 32-team format) featured 5 penalty shootouts, while the 2018 World Cup in Russia featured 4.

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