If you are already feeling withdrawal, there are WT races in Canada this weekend and Pogi is back in action:

Bad day for Lipowitz but maybe he can go in the break now.

Meanwhile, strong day for Roglic!

@Eliza Also think we might see Sepp in the break soon

If Roglic is strong today, this market will likely go above 90%, but a lot fight still for who makes podium, here is a market:

Too high! Roglic has a 28% DNF rate on grand tours!

@JCE but only 20% DNF on Vuelta, only one time he has not finished Vuelta, the rest of the time podium each time, and won 3/4. La Vuelta is less dangerous for crashes than the Tour.

Still plenty of super hard stages to come, this is still not decided by any means

@egroj Yea I would also argue he appears to finish more often when it’s more likely he’ll win. Still!

@JCE But that's from the beginning, and the Vuelta is already 13 out of 21 stages done. There's only about a 10% chance of a crash-DNF left.

The bundle of Mas/Carapaz/Landa are still really tight, this should be fun.

@Eliza Plus, Adam "Not going for GC" Yates accidentally beat the red jersey today.

BEN O'CONNOR STAYS IN RED; BUY YOUR SHARES NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@Lion He just needs Roglic to crash and Mas to keep blowing himself up. Trust the plan.

And Carapaz and Landa and every other GC rider to just follow his wheel and never attack

or farmers go to protest and they have to cut La Vuelta and finish before Sunday

I just made markets for the stage winner for some of the most exciting stages coming up:

Anyone interested in either buying or selling Roglic at 50%?

I'd buy a big chunk of Roglic NO shares at 60%...

I'm short on mana, but would sell up to M$2000 at 52% on the other market https://manifold.markets/Lion/will-one-of-the-big-four-pogacar-vi

@Eliza I'm ready to buy Roglic at 50% now

I still think O'Connor is undervalued. He held today on a ridiculously hard stage, when many users below were suggesting that he would lose time on the hardest mountain stages. He successfully burned away a huge opportunity to take time out of him, reducing the number of stages remaining.

There are more than M$5k limit orders up on 18-20%. Please fill them please.

Why would I do that? The market keeps falling to 11% eventually every day.

It’s been under 10% several times which is completely ridiculous.

Total profit maximization: You can buy more than 100 shares. Otherwise these limit orders will just expire. You can still buy the shares when O'Connor goes below 12%.

@Lion I'm not convinced this always holds. People's behaviour is affected by others. If Steve consistently buys at 18% others might be influenced not to buy down to 11%.

(I do suspect the magnitude of those higher limit orders swamps this effect though)

Lol, I just want someone to fill my limit order at 19%. I don't care at all what Steve or anyone else buys outside of that or at what price. (Tbh, I don't disagree with 11% for O'Conor. I think that's within a realistic range, but 19% is too high.)