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@JCE but only 20% DNF on Vuelta, only one time he has not finished Vuelta, the rest of the time podium each time, and won 3/4. La Vuelta is less dangerous for crashes than the Tour.
Still plenty of super hard stages to come, this is still not decided by any means
@egroj Yea I would also argue he appears to finish more often when it’s more likely he’ll win. Still!
@JCE But that's from the beginning, and the Vuelta is already 13 out of 21 stages done. There's only about a 10% chance of a crash-DNF left.
@Lion He just needs Roglic to crash and Mas to keep blowing himself up. Trust the plan.
I'm short on mana, but would sell up to M$2000 at 52% on the other market https://manifold.markets/Lion/will-one-of-the-big-four-pogacar-vi
I still think O'Connor is undervalued. He held today on a ridiculously hard stage, when many users below were suggesting that he would lose time on the hardest mountain stages. He successfully burned away a huge opportunity to take time out of him, reducing the number of stages remaining.
@Lion I'm not convinced this always holds. People's behaviour is affected by others. If Steve consistently buys at 18% others might be influenced not to buy down to 11%.
(I do suspect the magnitude of those higher limit orders swamps this effect though)