Did US life expectancy increase in 2022?
resolved Nov 29

Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for all races and origins in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 (76.4) as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.

Notice that this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023), and there might be a discrepancy with that provisional estimate and the final estimate (likely released in December 2023).

For reference life expectancy has decreased each year since 2019.

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bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

Resolves YES: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr031.pdf

In 2022, life expectancy at birth was 77.5 years, increasing by 1.1 years from 76.4 in 2021

Killers of young people (Opioids/generalized drugs, accidents, suicide, violence) continue to rise and heavily weigh life expectancy downwards - we'll keep seeing YoY decreases in LE until young people start dying less

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Not making up for the decrease from 2019 but this analysis suggests a rebound in 2022 (relative to 2021).


predicted YES

@NicoDelon Social security also projects an increase. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2022/lr5a4.html

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Probably the number improved. But if you would remove the effect of coronavirus mortality, you'd still have a drop from 2021.

predicted YES

Interesting why do you say that? It only declined in during covid, and declined during covid in other rich countries too.

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Just edited the description with the final estimate (76.4) based on https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db456.htm.

Previously the description said:

"The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 76.1 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available."