Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic Black population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 70.8 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023).
For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019.
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I bet NO on this market and lost. When betting, I was surprised the market was so confident. Could someone one the YES side explain what they thought?
(My guess: the decrease was mainly because of COVID, and one should expect regression to the mean etc., but I wasn't as confident in these arguments as the market)
@Loppukilpailija I bet yes becuase covid deaths declined more strongly among black people than among white people.
@Loppukilpailija Also regression to the mean would be life expectancy for black Americans continuing to increase faster than for other racial groups. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/life-expectancy-us-increased-between-2000-2019-widespread-gaps-among-racial-ethnic-groups-exist
@Loppukilpailija this paper
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.26.23286363v1.full
indicated a collective life expectancy increase. Given that the COVID death rate was so high for Black people it seemed like the effect would be larger than in the general population - you can just track the COVID death rates on various websites and see it sink in 2022. These life expectancy markets were all quite low liquidity, so a few confident people can really shape the result - I chain-bought this one up from 39 to 82% against very mild resistance, which is basically where it stayed until the results came out.
