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From the outside view, only 1% of years since the invention of nuclear weapons have contained a nuclear war. This could be off by some amount in either direction, but I think 4% is too high.

No.

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Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

26% chance

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?

9% chance

will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?

10% chance

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

47% chance

Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?

69% chance

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?

19% chance

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?

16% chance

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