Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first company to officially operate a fully driverless vehicle (defined as a vehicle operating on public roads with no human safety driver physically present in the driver's seat) within the city limits of Chicago, Illinois.

Eligible operations only include:

• Commercial ride-hailing services open to the general public.

Not:

Closed-beta or "trusted tester" programs, that are not available to the general public. (If you can easily apply and join the beta it's fine

• Driverless testing on public roads (without passengers)

Notes & Edge Cases:

• Vehicles operating with a human safety driver physically behind the wheel (such as current mapping or supervised testing fleets) do not count toward resolution.

• Resolution will be determined by official company press releases or reports from reputable news organizations (e.g., Chicago Tribune, WGN-TV, Chicago Sun-Times, TechCrunch).

• If multiple companies launch fully driverless operations on the exact same calendar day, the market will resolve proportionally between those options.

• Major Chicago Suburbs do Count

Background

While autonomous vehicle (AV) companies are actively preparing for Midwest expansion, full commercial deployment in Illinois remains restricted by local and state regulations.

In February 2026, Alphabet's Waymo began mapping Chicago's streets and conducting testing. In mid-2026, Tesla Cybercabs and Model Ys were also spotted undergoing testing and data collection on Chicago roads. However, under current Illinois law, these vehicles are required to have a human safety driver behind the wheel. Legislative efforts, such as the Autonomous Vehicle Pilot Project Act, are being actively debated in Springfield to establish a legal framework for fully driverless commercial deployments in Cook County and other populated areas. This market tracks which company will be the first to officially transition to empty-seat driverless operations in the Windy City once regulatory and technical milestones are cleared.

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