Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ31Aug 10
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Presumably GPT 5.6 or maybe GPT 6 depending how they brand it. 5.6 seems to be the rumour right now.
Resolves based on my personal eyeballing of mostly benchmark results / vibes.
Resolve YES if it's distinctly Fable-class. Resolves NO if it's distinctly Opus-class.
Maybe resolves to 50% if it seems genuinely in the middle of the two.
N/A if there is no new release by close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?
5% chance
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Which, if any, GPT-n will outperform AlphaGeometry merely via prompting, by 2030?
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026