This market resolves to YES if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3. It resolves to NO if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms a different model (not GPT-4.5) is the base model for o3.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication (blog post, press release, technical paper, official social media account, or statement from leadership) that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3
The statement clearly identifies GPT-4.5 as the foundational architecture or model that o3 is built upon
If o3 is described as "built on," "derived from," or "a version of" GPT-4.5
Resolves NO if:
OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication that a model other than GPT-4.5 (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4o, a completely new architecture) is the base model for o3
OpenAI explicitly denies that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3
Evidence Standards
Only official OpenAI sources will be considered as valid evidence
Unofficial leaks, rumors, or third-party analysis will not be considered for resolution
Technical analyses by outside parties attempting to determine the base model will not be considered for resolution
Resolution Timeline
This market will resolve when OpenAI makes a clear statement about o3's base model.
1,000I think this is unlikely:
o3 is only about three months behind o1, based on when they announced benchmarks results (September and December). o1 release and Deep Research were also three months apart. This means they moved pretty quickly to train o3 after training o1. Orion might not have been ready in time, and in any case switching base models probably requires time to adjust the reasoning training recipe.
GPT-4.5 is big and expensive, which would make inference and training for o3 more expensive
Also if o3 was based on 4.5 they probably would have bragged about that fact instead of being relatively modest about 4.5's capabilities.
@NoaNabeshima Right, and potential traders need to know you're relying on OpenAI's word. This isn't clear from the question wording.
@WilliamGunn Idk, that also feels misleading (and more so than the current title to me) because the market won't resolve NO if OpenAI doesn't say that GPT-4.5 is the base model. I don't feel too worried about this, I think the resolution criteria in the description is pretty clear and not very different from the title. I might eat my words later, of course, we'll see.
@NoaNabeshima A company's statements and the fact of the matter are often different, and you are resolving on statements but the question asks about the fact of the matter. You're putting traders in a situation where GPT4.5 could be shown by a credible third-party to be the base model but you resolve no because OpenAI didn't say anything. You can avoid this by asking instead "Will OpenAI confirm GPT4.5 is the base model for o3?".
You can deliberately mislead people or change the wording of either the question or the resolution criteria, but you can't pretend there's no issue with it as is.
@WilliamGunn Notably I would not resolve No if credible third parties show that GPT4.5 is the base model and OpenAI doesn't say anything. I am not putting traders in that situation.