This market resolves to YES if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3. It resolves to NO if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms a different model (not GPT-4.5) is the base model for o3.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if:

• OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication (blog post, press release, technical paper, official social media account, or statement from leadership) that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3

• The statement clearly identifies GPT-4.5 as the foundational architecture or model that o3 is built upon

• If o3 is described as "built on," "derived from," or "a version of" GPT-4.5

Resolves NO if:

• OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication that a model other than GPT-4.5 (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4o, a completely new architecture) is the base model for o3

• OpenAI explicitly denies that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3

Evidence Standards

• Only official OpenAI sources will be considered as valid evidence

• Unofficial leaks, rumors, or third-party analysis will not be considered for resolution

• Technical analyses by outside parties attempting to determine the base model will not be considered for resolution

Resolution Timeline

This market will resolve when OpenAI makes a clear statement about o3's base model.