This market resolves to YES if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3. It resolves to NO if OpenAI makes an official statement or announcement that confirms a different model (not GPT-4.5) is the base model for o3.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication (blog post, press release, technical paper, official social media account, or statement from leadership) that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3
The statement clearly identifies GPT-4.5 as the foundational architecture or model that o3 is built upon
If o3 is described as "built on," "derived from," or "a version of" GPT-4.5
Resolves NO if:
OpenAI explicitly states in an official communication that a model other than GPT-4.5 (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4o, a completely new architecture) is the base model for o3
OpenAI explicitly denies that GPT-4.5 is the base model for o3
Evidence Standards
Only official OpenAI sources will be considered as valid evidence
Unofficial leaks, rumors, or third-party analysis will not be considered for resolution
Technical analyses by outside parties attempting to determine the base model will not be considered for resolution
Resolution Timeline
This market will resolve when OpenAI makes a clear statement about o3's base model.