I'm working on a LessWrong post draft about how complete newbies can get into the world of probabilistic predicting (i.e. this very site, Metaculus, PredictionBook, Kalshi, etc.) It's inspired by the fact that I have seen exactly zero good explainers on this topic and personally had to autodidact myself. This will be my very first post on the site (though I've made a few comments here and there). As of market creation (June 25), I am roughly ~40% of the way through writing the post.
I encourage insider trading, suggestions on what to include in the post, and comments to motivate me in general. (However, I'm not planning on coauthorship.) This market closes on Friday, June 30 (my semi-arbitrary personal deadline), and should be based on whether my LW account has a public post to its name at that time.
Note that I'll be quite busy over this particular week due to starting a summer job.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ34 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Nice!
If you want someone to eyeball it or any drafts to get first impressions / a fresh perspective, I'd be more than happy to help. Just send me a LW message :)
I, also, have been meaning to write a LW post eventually, but have not gotten around to it, so helping you would be a good step for me too. (Don't worry, I'm not looking to snipe a coauthorship, your post is your post).
No worries if not, but I do have a lot of free time at the moment, so it wouldn't be an imposition at all :)
And this offer applies even if this market fails.
Good Luck!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?