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Result of the Red Button / Blue Button vote on Aella's social network site Glosso?
26
Ṁ600Ṁ4.3k
Apr 28
Red54%

@Aella has a poll running on her poll-based social network site glosso.ink

( https://x.com/Aella_Girl/status/2048489793844355154 )

See this for the viral Tim Urban poll and a subsequent poll of the American public by David Shor:

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1svn8pp/poll_asking_americans_how_which_button_they_would/

Resolves to the answer that gets more votes when the result is revealed. Resolves N/A if the results are different than either majority "Red" or majority "Blue" (e.g. if a third option is added or if the rules are made more complex for some reason, which seems unlikely).

I will extend the timeline of this market if the vote is extended.

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I love the idea that losing access to a social media website is a comparable level of stakes to death.

@SemioticRivalry It is closer (log scale) than literal zero, aka voting on a twitter poll.

Do you have a higher stakes example this clean?

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 60% order

Order up at 40% on Blue :)

Hey @duck_master can I edit the description and title and boost it? I think this is a cool market.

@bens I propose something like:

Result of the binding Red Button / Blue Button vote on Aella's social network site Glosso?

for maximum engagement?

And then linking to the site and the Rosie Campbell tweet?

@bens you can do this but I think you should edit the description to clarify the N/A criteria first (I didn't put a lot of thought into them when I wrote the description initially, but they could be important if Aella decides to change the rules unexpectedly somehow)

@duck_master can we push it back from May 1st? I feel like we can give her at least a few weeks?

@bens sure if need be (and also I feel like you're gonna ruin the spirit of the market if you get rid of the "Unranked" tag)

@duck_master wait I feel like this can be ranked, no? ohhhhh wait unless you don't want interference with the survey?

@bens exactly