Result of France's senate election on September 24, 2023?
8
285Ṁ531
resolved Sep 25
35%80%
Les Républicains (REP)
24%1.5%Other
22%15%
Socialiste, écologiste et républicain (SER)
14%1.5%
Union centriste (UC)
6%3%
Rassemblement des démocrates, progressistes et indépendants (RDPI)

The European nation of France is having a senate election on Sunday, September 24, 2023, with 172 out of 348 seats up for grabs. There are many parties competing but they are grouped into the following alliances (in decreasing order of power as of the previous election):

As usual, I'll use the mainstream media to resolve this market. Each option resolves to the fraction (# of seats up for grabs taken by that group)/(#total seats up for grabs). The "Other" option is for groups not listed as answers by resolve date - I'm intentionally not adding all groups at creation because it can get expensive. If the results are delayed or the vote is rescheduled, I'll update the close date accordingly. If no such election occurs by the end of 2023, if it's impossible to know the actual results, or if the election does not result in specific people being elected to France's senate, then this market resolves N/A.

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Results are out per https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_s%C3%A9natoriales_fran%C3%A7aises_de_2023#R%C3%A9sultats as follows:

  • Les Républicains got 59 seats (or 35%)

  • Socialiste, écologiste, et républicain got 37 seats (or 22%)

  • Union centriste got 23 seats (or 16%)

  • Rassemblement des démocrates, progressistes, et indépendants got 10 seats (or 6%)

  • The other parties got 13+10+8+7+3 = 41 seats (or 24%)

I'm resolving this market accordingly.

Predictors, please remember that this market resolves to multiple options in proportion to seats won, not just to the party that wins the most seats overall.

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