Will I find practical use for agents like OpenAI's Operator in 2025?
27
100Ṁ2904
Dec 31
54%
chance

This is one of the first predictions in Scott Alexander et al's AI 2027. I wrote about this in my AGI Friday newsletter.

For the purposes of this market, this resolves according to whether I personally find such agents worth using and paying for on at least a weekly basis.

Ask clarifying questions (and suggest things I should be using such agents for)!

So far, my experiments with OpenAI's Operator have not exactly been a success.

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I think the first bullet item in the Random Roundup of https://agifriday.substack.com/p/boombust is a small positive update here.

Boom XOR Bust
Even snarky Tiktokers have switched to deriding AI for being powerful

@dreev what are your thoughts 6 months later?

@MRME It's highly ambiguous! Anyone have positive or negative examples of things they've tried? I talked about an example in an AGI Friday recently.

I'm not betting so far, which may be easier. I can just resolve according to my own best judgment. If I can't resist betting, I'll say more about how I'd deal with my conflict of interest. So far I'm pretty clueless and don't feel I have a better probability than this market is coming up with.

boughtṀ100NO

@bessarabov Wanna bet more? Limit order at 30%

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