Will at least 1 out of 100 Bernoulli trials, each with 1/100 probability, succeed?
13
100Ṁ1936
resolved Oct 26
Resolved as
63%

Resolves to the market price after quiescence.

This is an experiment to see if auto-resolving works for an unambiguous question for which the truth is not near the extremes of 0 or 1 probability.

It's similar to @jack's https://manifold.markets/jack/what-is-the-probability-that-a-coin experiment about a random coin coming up heads but that one was muddied by some ambiguity: we don't know the truth, for one thing. And the title misleads traders into thinking the true answer is around 50%. Also I don't think there was consensus or clarification on whether a coin needs to depict a literal head to count as "heads".

I don't think there's any such room for interpretation with this question so any deviation from what we can later agree is the true answer would be a market failure.

Close date updated to 2022-10-06 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-10-20 11:59 pm

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predictedNO

I wonder if there is a way of making money from @v (Velocity bot) in this kind of question if it turns out they "auto-resolve" the right way.

Welcome to Node.js v16.17.0.
Type ".help" for more information.
> Math.random()
0.641849744996897
> for (let i = 0; i < 100; i+=1 ) {
... r = Math.random();
... if (r <= 0.01 ) console.log('did it');
... }
did it
undefined
predictedYES

Should resolve to YES.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall You sure are skilled at ambiguity-injection! To clarify, this is asking about the probability in general.

I calculated the answer to be 63.4%

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