Which Beeminder feature/project will have the highest ROI?

Ṁ6.9K

resolved May 1

ALL

73%[AUTOD] Steadily adding integrations (Focusmate has been So Huge!); in particular the meta integration

1.4%[UNCLE] The uncle button (as in crying uncle, like "yes yes, stop zeno'ing, I'm intentionally taking the derailment on this")

0.0%[SCHED] Revamping/optimizing the pledge schedule

5%[BOARD] Just gradually making Beeminder better and clearer and onboarding better and emailing people more when they fall off the wagon, etc etc

1.2%[GRAPH] Dynagraphs, aka merging graph.beeminder.com into Beeminder proper

0.0%[STAIR] Bright Red Staircase

0.0%I think you'd get more engagement if you explained the features you've got. Right now, searching this is a Trivial Inconvenience.

0.0%An unlisted feature

In the absence of a better way to estimate this, we'll go by what we decide to do first.

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🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Steven Rybicki	Ṁ485
2	Nathan Arthur	Ṁ439
3	N.C. Young	Ṁ389
4	JD	Ṁ158
5	Clive Freeman	Ṁ74

13 Comments

92 Trades

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N.C. Young

Yeah, the average is 3-ish per year while you've now (tentatively) committed to 5. The freeCodeCamp integration was long enough after Focusmate that it was sort of a continuation of the status quo, but since the description specifically mentions what you *decide* to do first, it looks like that decision's been made and the market should resolve.

Daniel Reeves

Also the existence of that meta Beeminder graph is a decent argument for resolving this to AUTOD since we launched one and committed to launching more.

Daniel Reeves

Well that bounty market worked brilliantly and now the answer is that we totally do have a graph: https://www.beeminder.com/meta/integrations

Daniel Reeves

See https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-a-link-to-data-on-beeminders-p

Daniel Reeves

We don't have a graph! But the data from which to make one is here: https://beeminder.consider.it#done-11

Zian Choy

I agree that the market shouldn't resolve yet. The answer says "Steadily adding integrations". I don't know how Daniel defines "steadily adding". But, if I were him, I would say that someone shows signs of "steadily doing X" if they consistently do X over an extended duration. Is there a graph somewhere that shows the total # of Beeminder integrations on a weekly or monthly basis?

Daniel Reeves

Thanks for the nudge! I think the probability is well above 71% (current market probability as I type this) but maybe we'll wait a bit longer to be sure since it does say "integrations", plural...

N.C. Young

Does this resolve [AUTOD] now that the freeCodeCamp integration has launched?

Adambought Ṁ1 of An unlisted feature

dunno if you intend to resolve the market N/A in this case, but M$1 to find out seems cheap!

Daniel Reevesbought Ṁ37 of [UNCLE] The uncle bu...

@M, agreed about confusing "highest ROI" with "best feature". For example, UNCLE is a plausible contender due to how easy it should be to implement.

Mr Rsold Ṁ1 of I think you'd get mo...

OK, I meant to say that researching the features is a trivial inconvenience. This reduces engagement with the question. If that's intentional, fair enough.