What fraction of Beeminder/Manifold goals will be do-more?
May 3

See the companion market:


This resolves-to-PROB for the fraction of Beeminder goals that are committing to bet more on Manifold as opposed to committing to bet less.

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@dreev what's the planned resolution date for this market? I see "2024" but is that Jan 1, 2024 or later?

predicts YES

@mkalbert If you hover over the year there it should show the exact date (May 2).

predicts YES

I first heard about Manifold from the Beeminder integration announcement and created a do-more goal to make sure I stuck with it for a bit. Then I found myself spending a bit too much time on it!

Happily, I've come down to a more appropriate amount of time on my own, but I realized it could be useful for a single person to have both a do-more goal and do-less goal. A do-more of 1/day (with auto ratchet) can preserve your Manifold streak (hello free mana) and a do-less of up to 5/day (or whatever) can prevent excessive use.

I haven't tried that myself yet (I tend to avoid do-less goals), but the idea of setting boundaries on both sides does slightly affect how I think about this market.