What fraction of Beeminder/Manifold goals will be do-more?
9
Ṁ171Ṁ190
2024
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ12 +23%
New probability
82% +0.8%
See the companion market:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/how-many-beeminder-goals-will-peopl-6d3ad5be8763
This resolves-to-PROB for the fraction of Beeminder goals that are committing to bet more on Manifold as opposed to committing to bet less.
Get Ṁ500 play money
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