If Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?
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She doesn't have to literally kick herself. I will resolve this according to my best judgment.

Relevant facts: She's a Ruby on Rails developer, CTO of Beeminder, she's not like a Vim guru, just extremely comfortable with it. She's wary of steep learning curves, likes using git from the command line, etc.

UPDATE: This is open-ended and only resolves if/when she fully switches over, at which time I will quiz her on how much she regrets not switching sooner and resolve accordingly.

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predicts NO

ooh what happened with this @dreev ?

predicts YES

@DannyOBrien Good question! She keeps trying to get used to it and seems to keep falling back into the familiar embrace of Vim. I asked her just now and she said this happens when she's doing something on the command line and needs to open a file real quick. I told her that she can do that probably just as quickly with code filename on the command line so... I guess let's see if that finally does it for her?

predicts YES

PS: But I think since it didn't happen in the original timeframe we need to resolve this market as NO. I should've been explicit about timeframe but I think it was implied by the close date of the market?

If anyone objects to that, please let me know!

predicts YES

Oops, wait, now I'm noticing that the title says "IF SHE SWITCHES" and arguably she keeps trying and failing to fully switch. So now I'm not sure. Maybe the end date doesn't actually matter?

This is all annoyingly subjective, but I guess I was clear about that from the start! I think we should re-open trading with an explicit update in the description that this is open-ended. Whenever (if ever) she considers herself fully switched over, I'll quiz her on how much she regrets (ideally in terms of lost productivity or other measures of utility or programmer joy) not switching sooner and resolve accordingly.

Makes sense, but it effectively makes the question be "conditional on Bee switching from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?" Naturally, that conditional probability is significantly higher than the unconditional probability.

I've sold my NO position—it was largely based on the large probability of her reaching the (correct) conclusion that Vim is better than VScode and thus not switching.

@zzq I'm out too

@ianminds By the way, the end date did matter. Not everything can fit into the title; that's why there's a description, a close date, comments, ... A fairer way to go forward would've been to close this as NO and create a new open-ended question.

@ianminds Oops, I missed this comment! This is tricky. I guess my general feeling is that betting NO based on a low probability of her actually switching by the close date counts as trading on a technicality, which is totally fine but it needs the clarifying question. In this case confirming what would happen if she never ends up switching at all -- i.e., whether the "if" in the title makes it a conditional market or if it meant to predict the conjunction: she switches and she regrets not doing so sooner.

I obviously hadn't thought this through at the time I created the market but in retrospect, treating it as conditional feels more natural, given how it's phrased. But maybe the most precise interpretation is to treat it as a conditional market where the condition is that she switches by the original close date. In that case we'd need to resolve N/A.

How does that sound to people?

I do some Rails at work, and my coworkers who like VSCode keep having bizarre environment & test-running issues. I, in Neovim, am very comfy; my RubyMine coworkers are also very comfy. I'd recommend that if she wants an IDE, but also, as a fellow vim-attached person, think it's completely fine and good to stick with your comfy tool :)

Now I switched from JetBrains to VS Code, and I tend to like it better. So I'm much less certain on this market.

predicts YES

@NathanArthur I'm surprised about this! curious on your reasons/reflections!

If she was going to switch to JetBrains, I might have said yes. But since she's not, I'm tentatively saying no.
If you are used to Vim you will be used to its power - it is arguably more extensible than VSCode, and has as much language support. I am not a Vim person myself (tried it though), I am putting myself in the shoes of someone who uses it for daily driver for months? years?
predicts YES
to be fair - you can have a copilot with vim 😉 (copilot is great though!)
Jump ship! Github Copilot alone is a good enough reason to move over. My own history of notable text-editor migrations: - Notepad - Notepad++ - Eclipse - Sublime (ctrl+d for multiple cursor selections ftw) - Android Studio for Android - VSCode for web - VSCode with Prettier autosave - VSCode with Copilot I'm hoping VSCode is the final boss!
If you're even considering it, I am guessing there's something you are dissatisfied with or covetous of which you will find to be better.
+1 for JetBrains IDEs :)
May I also submit RubyMine for consideration https://www.jetbrains.com/ruby/ 😛 I consistently find JetBrains IDEs having best language models/support.
VScode + Vim plugin and she will never look back
Another relevant fact: The Manifold folks use Visual Studio Code and said something to the effect of "omg yes you definitely want to switch to it" when I said I'm still on Sublime.