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How many Beeminder goals will people create to beemind their betting?
8
Ṁ390Ṁ117
resolved Nov 3
ResolvedN/A
7%
More than 100
9%
More than 50
15%
More than 25
18%
More than 10
22%
More than 5
29%Other

Mea culpa! I created this market with the wrong settings. See comments. I've recreated the market here:

https://manifold.markets/dreev/how-many-beeminder-goals-will-peopl-6d3ad5be8763

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The answers can be phrased better imo

  1. if more than 100 goals are created, "more than 100" and "more than 50" are both true. (I think "more than 50" was meant to be "50-100"?)

  2. Others should probably just be "0 to 50" if you don't plan on adding answers.

@SavioMak The idea is to keep adding overlapping answers and resolve to all that end up true. I see this could be clearer! Any ideas for how to make it clearer?

@dreev The problem is that you created the kind of multiple-choice market that sums all answers to 100%, rather than the type where all answers are independent and just acts like an aggregate of binary markets. You cant resolve 2 answers at 100% here btw, the best you can do is 50%/50%.

have something to do, more later

@dreev Basically, all the poor phrasing stems from choosing the wrong option here.

CDF-like market -> Any Number; PDF-like market -> One

I think you are better off N/A this market and creating a new one.

@SavioMak Crap, yes, I intended to select "any number"! Ok, N/A'ing and recreating [and done]. Thanks so much for catching that!