Will Sam Altman’s net worth exceed that of Elon Musk before 2040?
Standard
41
Ṁ24122040
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
I feel like a lot of this probability is based on Elon dying, since he's much older than Sam Altman.
https://manifold.markets/ShadowyZephyr/conditional-on-neither-dying-will-s
@donaldboyd Oh, Sam wins if Elon dies, that makes it a lot more likely
(Also I assume if Sam dies and it doesn't happen Elon wins)
Related questions
Related questions
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
94% chance
Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025?
21% chance
Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?
20% chance
Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?
Will Elon Musk's net worth fall below $150 billion before 2030?
56% chance
Will Sam Altman be worth $5 Billion or more at the end of 2027?
78% chance
Mark Zuckerberg has a higher net worth than Elon Musk before 2030
66% chance
Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
54% chance
Conditional on neither dying, will Sam Altman’s net worth exceed that of Elon Musk before 2040?
9% chance
Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $500 billion by 2030?
41% chance