Since GPT-4's launch in March 2023, there hasn't been any model released that has represented a large improvement in reasoning over the various versions of GPT-4. Claude 3.5 Sonnet is the closest, but in my opinion doesn't represent an improvement similar to that between GPT-3 and GPT-4, or even GPT-3.5 to GPT-4.

This market is an attempt to quantify when a model will next represent an impressive reasoning improvement in the same way that GPT-4 was.

By "general AI model" I mean a model that you can talk to in a similar way to today's LLMs, and that exhibits similar reasoning ability across a wide range of topics, not something like AlphaProof.

This is a somewhat subjective market, so I won't bet in it. I'm looking for a significant reasoning improvement, not "we got 3% better on MATH" or anything involving usage of external tools like a code interpreter. I also don't care about other types of improvements, such as including other modalities or improved prompting techniques, for the purposes of this market. I will use benchmarks as well as the general impression that people have of the model. The general improvement I am looking for is something like the GPT-3 to GPT-4 jump. I would expect GPT-5 to satisfy this (but it might not!).

The model must be released, not just announced. It's okay if I don't have access, but some random members of the public need to have access.

I'll resolve to my opinion, and not a poll of Manifold or whatever, but I expect my opinion to mostly be in line with what a poll would say. Feel free to ask questions of the form "would a model that does X resolve this market".