Will there be an accusation of a large language model being used for disinformation during the 2024 US Presidential Election?
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230
2025
79%
chance

Should be from a credible source, if wikipedia would accept it it's fine.

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Does scale matter? Like, if there’s an individual troll who uses GPT to assist them with writing disinformation, and this fact gets mentioned as part of a reputable news article, then this resolves YES?

@EMcNeill Or since all that’s needed is an accusation, would it be enough to read: “some users on Twitter suggested the troll may have been using AI to write some of his comments”?

sold Ṁ16 of YES

@EMcNeill For scale, it needs to be reasonable to refer to it as a large language model, anything above 2B parameters trained on at least 10B tokens is definitely in. Below that we would need it to be referred to as a large language model by another source.

For the accusation question, assuming the article does not refute the claim, it would resolve yes.

@dmayhem93 Oh, I meant “scale” in terms of the number of people involved. Like, would it count if there was just some lone wolf accused of disinformation rather than, say, a big coordinated campaign. But it sounds like the answer is “yes”, and it’s good to know the info about LLM scale too!

predicts NO

@EMcNeill Got it, I thought you were referring to the original GPT 😅. Yeah if a single troll makes it into a reputable source I would resolve as YES.

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