Gukesh vs. Ding - 2024 World Chess Championship prop bets

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Ṁ5880

Dec 14

21%

Gukesh reaches 2800 in live rating

76%

Ding finishes with fewer rating points than he started with (2728)

14%

Exactly 11 games are needed to decide the match

68%

A position reached after 10 moves is exactly similar to a position in two previous world championships

18%

The Queens Gambit Accepted is played at least once

74%

One players odds of winning reach at least 90% on Polymarket up to 6 hours after game 7

34%

Ding's odds of winning the match reach 40% on Polymarket at any point

62%

The match decisive i.e winner gets at least +3

83%

A tablebase position is reached

57%

Winners TPR is >2820

10%

Either player forfeits the match before it's decided

28%

There is a series of three consecutive decisive games

57%

Opposite-side castling happens in at least 2 games

56%

No occurrences of the Berlin defence (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6)

73%

1.e4 is the most commonly played first move

45%

Zero occurrences of the Sicilian defence (1.e4 c5)

27%

Both players win multiple games

31%

All wins in the match are with the white colors

25%

At least 11 draws in the match

74%

A game lasts more than 60 moves

Add your props. Please be as clear and concise as possible to avoid confusion.

Polymarket market referenced - https://polymarket.com/event/world-chess-championship-2024-winner?tid=1731990671056

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1.e4 is the most commonly played first move

After drawing of lots Gukesh has white during game 1. Given that the match will likely end before game 14 and his main second Gajewski has perhaps the best 1.e4 repertoire in the world, this is a 90% lock. It also means a game 1 victory is on the cards

Gukesh reaches 2800 in live rating

What's the difference between this one and "Gukesh will reach 2800 in live rating"?

@Calibrate None, I though when was adding it for the first time that it did not go through, so I added it again.

@Weezing N/A'ed one of the duplicates

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