This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

The state of Maine handles how it counts electoral college votes differently than most other states. Unlike most of the US, which relies on a "Winner-take-all" method of delegating EC counts for presidential candidates (i.e., the candidate who receives the most votes in a state wins all of its EC votes), Maine divides up its EC votes by congressional district. Maine has 4 EC votes, and awards two EC votes based on statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.

For example, in 2020, Joe Biden won the state popular vote, receiving 2 EC votes, along with the 1st congressional district, garnering him 3 total. Trump won the rural 2nd congressional district, giving him 1. Here's how ME-02 voted historically:

• 2004: Kerry (52%)

• 2008: Obama (54.61%)

• 2012: Obama (52.94%)

• 2016: Trump (51.26%)

• 2020: Trump (52.26%)

For the past 2 presidential elections, ME-02 has voted for the Republican presidential nominee. In 2024, will the Dems be able to flip this district blue? If so, market will resolve as YES. If the district remains red, market will resolve as NO.