Resolution criteria

The general election is November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if a Republican wins Maine's 2nd Congressional District House seat in the 2026 general election, and NO if a Democrat wins. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Maine Secretary of State's office at https://www.maine.gov/sos/elections/.

Background

With Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden not running again, there is an open seat for one of the most closely watched U.S. House races this year. The district voted for Trump by 9.5% in 2024 while re-electing Golden by less than one percent, making it the most presidentially-Republican congressional district held by a Democrat in the country, and is considered one of the best opportunities in non-redistricted seats for a Republican pickup. The Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+4, meaning the district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average.

Joe Baldacci (D), Matthew Dunlap (D), Paige Loud (D), and Jordan Wood (D) are running in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Maine District 2 on June 9, 2026. James Clark (R) and Paul LePage (R) are running in the Republican primary for U.S. House Maine District 2 on June 9, 2026. Former two-term Republican governor, Paul LePage, is running to try to pick up the seat for Republicans hoping to protect their majority in Congress.

Considerations

Both the primaries and general election will be conducted with ranked-choice voting. This means candidates must achieve a majority through a tabulation process that reallocates lower-ranked votes if no candidate wins outright in the first round.

This description was generated by AI.